What effect will Rueben Randle's performance in 2013 have on what the Giants decide to do with Hakeem Nicks after the 2013 season?

Pay attention to what Randle does this season because it'll directly affect what the Giants decide to do with Nicks. Besides Nicks's injury situation, this is the other big variable that the Giants will take into consideration with respect to what they decide to do with Nicks after the season (e.g., whether they let Nicks walk in FA, franchise him for the year, franchise him then extend him, come to long-term contract terms prior to the start of free agency, or if they just let him walk outright in free agency). 

Looking at the situation analytically from a pure salary cap perspective, I contend that Nicks will be here with the Giants in 2014, since I believe that the Giants will franchise him, and not even let him get to unrestricted free agency if they can't come to a long-term agreement with him prior to it's start (as they did with Will Beatty this year). They will have room enough under the cap next year to use on him. As per overthecap.com, the Giants have an estimated $113,040,042 committed to their active salary in 2014. If, for any reason, negotiations get hairy, they then can use the franchise tag on Nicks.

As can be seen above, the franchise tag number for the 2013 season for WRs is $10,537,000. It will inevitably increase somewhat next year, as salaries continue to escalate, while incidentally the salary cap remains static. Keep an eye on Nicks' health, and Randle's progress in the offense, as they will be inextricably linked from a cap standpoint to what the Giants decide to do regarding Nicks' long-term future with the franchise. This is just a hunch, but all things being equal (assuming Randle plays well, and shows #1 ability, while Nicks is healthy--a BIG if) I think that they Giants will franchise Nicks after the year, and then draft someone else to develop as a 4th WR for the year, and then let Nicks walk after the 2014 season. They will also have to take into account JPP's impending free agency into the equation as well. You can bet that Eli Manning will agree to an extension next year that will lessen his 2014 cap number a great deal, thereby giving the Giants some more much needed cap room going forward into next year and beyond.

This is just total speculation on my part, as I said, but I can easily see a scenario that unfolds in that way. It will depend on how Nicks's season goes health-wise. If he's healthy, he's going to command huge bucks out on the open market from teams all over the league. He's proven that he's a #1 receiver playing the Z position. The question is this: can he remain healthy over the course of a 16-game season? He hasn't done that yet in his time here. Ironically enough, this is the reason that he may still wind up with the Giants in the long-term, since teams may be afraid to invest in him long-term, giving the Giants an edge in negotiations with him and his agent Peter Schaffer (click HERE for a brief article with Nicks and Schaffer being mentioned).

The Giants have two guys who are absolute iron men on the team right now: Eli Manning on offense, and Antrel Rolle on defense. Short of having their legs amputated, neither of those two guys miss games. Rolle hasn't yet since he signed here in 2010, which is why I think he'll play in Dallas in 3 weeks on opening night despite his ankle sprain. If Nicks is to have a future past 2013 and 2014 with the Giants he MUST show that he can be more durable.