Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Projected 53-man roster on opening night - ROUND 3

It's that time of the month again---projected 53-man roster time! Here were my first two attempts at doing this at the end of May, and the end of June:

Now here is my latest attempt at predicting the roster on opening night in Dallas on Sunday night, September 8th, 2013:

My only deviation this time from last is that I have Eric Herman making the team over Jim Cordle on the OL, and Shaun Rogers getting cut later on--if necessary--to make room for the return of Markus Kuhn from the PUP List after week 6 rather than Mike Patterson who sounds like he is tearing it up at training camp.


Here is the position-by-position breakdown:

Right now the Giants have 5 players on the PUP list. They are Henry Hynoski, Markus Kuhn, JPP, Terrell Thomas, & Chris Snee. My guess is that Snee and Thomas come off the PUP list at some point soon during camp, leaving Hynoski, JPP, and  Kuhn still on it come the start of the regular season.

Of course, the longer a player remains on the PUP list during training camp, the more likely he is to start the regular season there--assuming of course he is slated to be on the 53-man roster to start the regular season in September. The more that I think about it, I wouldn't be surprised to see T2 start the year on the PUP list now. Let's wait and see.

This is just my read of the situation, but in my humble opinion, the Giants do a great job of keeping injuries in-house. The noise we hear now about Hynoski being ready for Day 1 seems fishy to me. This is just a guess on my part, but I think they're going to be extra careful with him--as the Giants historically err on the side of caution when it comes to these kinds of injury situations. I think that they'll be careful with Kuhn, Hynoski, and especially their crown jewel: Mr. Pierre-Paul. I think by Game 7 that JPP and Hyno will be raring to go, with Kuhn being the only one of the three who seems to be struggling to come back that early (he tore his knee up--an AVL and MCL I think--on November 11th, 2012 in Cincinnati).

Just like the last time that I did this, I've got the Giants cutting the 3 players -- highlighted in orange above (Ramses Barden, Adrian Tracy, and Mike Patterson) -- once the 3 guys I've got projected to be on the PUP List at the start of the season mentioned below come off it, sometime between weeks 7 & 10.

I still think that a veteran 3rd RB will be added to the roster at the expense of 4th QB Curtis Painter, probably later on in camp when better veteran RBs will shake loose from teams. Da'Rel Scott is vulnerable in my opinion in this regard.

I'm going to try my hand at this again about 2 weeks from tonight in mid-August (August 15th), and then again approximately another 2 weeks after that in late-August (August 30th) for fun. I was only going to do it one more time at the end of August, but I figured that it'd be worth it to do it once more between now and then, hence my mid-August addition. It's all in fun anyway, so I figure "why not"? Besides, all my previous other shots at this were really almost meaningless.

My attempts at predicting this final 53-man roster in the middle and latter parts of August will have some meat behind them because we'll have heard rumors of who is playing well, and we'll know who isn't. We'll also be able to factor injuries into the situation as well, not to mention suspensions--of which the Giants are dealing with 2: one for S Will Hill, and the second for WR Brandon Collins. Hill has a solid chance to be on the team's 53-man roster after week 4, while Collins seems destined for the Practice Squad.

I think Hill will make the final 53-man roster, and be on the team again come week 5 after serving the his 4 game suspension. I think that the Giants will cut Tyler Sash in my scenario in order to keep exploring the options that Hill brings to the team in both the short-term as well as the long-term. It should be noted that players with less than 4 years worth of experience, like Tyler Sash, who are on the opening day 53-man roster of teams DON'T have guaranteed contracts for the year.

This means if he is cut after say week 4, that he'll only receive 4 weeks of his base salary pay--which in his case is $555,000, making each of his 17 weekly game checks worth approximately $32,647. Sash would only get 4 of these if he is cut after week 4 to make room for Will Hill. Shaun Rogers on the other hand would receive his entire base salary if he is released after week 1 after making the 53-man roster since he has over 4 years worth of experience.

This is why when roster moves are made in-season, that mostly younger players are involved, as Jason Fitzgerald from overthecap.com pointed out to me. On the flip side of the coin, Will Hill would only receive 13/17ths of his $480,000 base salary this year if he returns to the team after his 4-game suspension. Each check of his is supposed to be for approximately $28,235. If he misses 4 of them, then he'll only get $367,059 for the year, costing him about $112,941 in pay--a pretty costly thing to do for smoking weed to relive some stress.

However any of this turns out, it'll bear watching just to see how the finances & cap friendliness impact the Giants' decision making process. Keep in mind that decisions are often made for teams as the result of injuries that occur. It is for this reason that I wouldn't be surprised to see a rookie like CB Charles James or S Alonzo Tweedy make the team in place of Thomas and Hill to start the year if they show enough during camp, and if the door is open long enough for them to be able to walk through it before it closes.

In closing here is my prediction for the Practice Squad to start the year as well as the Practice Squad Eligibility rules:

P.S. Like i said before, I think Brandon Collins will be an ideal addition to the Practice Squad right after his suspension is over; Jake Muasau seems like a guy who is eminently cutable.