Projected 53-man roster on opening night: ROUND 4

Here are my last 3 attempts at predicting the Giants' opening night 53-man roster in Dallas on September 8th:

• 1.) Here's my 1st projected 53-man roster for the Giants at this time, for when the Top 51 rule ceases - May 28, 2013
• 2.) Here's my 2nd attempt at predicting the Giants' 53-man roster to start the 2013 season as of today - June 29, 2013
• 3.) Here's my 3rd attempt at predicting the Giants' 53-man roster to start the 2013 season as of July 30, 2013

Here goes with attempt #4...




First, here are the positional breakdowns:

Now here are the players themselves:

All of this is a guesstimate based on what I've been reading from various online sources that I value (i.e., Training Camp reports from Patricia Traina, Paul Dottino, & radio interviews of Giants' front office personnel/coaching staff). I was going to originally make this my next to last guess at the 53-man roster, but I'm going to do an extra one since I'm having so much fun doing it a week from today (Thursday, August 22nd---the day after training camp breaks) before my final official guess of the 53-man roster on August 30th, the day after the Giants' 4th and final preseason game n New England. Final Cuts are to be announced by 6 pm New York time on Saturday, August 31st. Take a look at the 2013-2014 NFL Calendar below:

• 2013-2014 NFL Calendar - ProFootballTalk,com

From the sound of the interview Joe & Evan of WFAN had with Giants' G.M. Jerry Reese, it sounds like they're going to take JPP off of the PUP List before the start of the regular season. They took Chris Snee and Terrell Thomas off of that list on August 6th. Right now, besides JPP, only two more players remain on the PUP List: DT Markus Kuhn and FB Henry Hynoski. My guess is that Hynoski & Kuhn remain on it to start the season, whereas JPP comes off of it in time to start the season, even if he's inactive for the first couple of games or so.

The Giants have two players who will start the season serving 4-game suspensions in WR Brandon Collins and Safety Will Hill. The Giants will have to make decisions regarding both Collins and Hill after week 4 of the regular season, one way or the other (to release them or to cut someone on the roster in order to give them a spot). Collins is a guy who is ideal for the Practice Squad. He is very likely to clear waivers if he's released after his suspension is done after week 4, and then be eligible to be signed to the Giants' Practice Squad after he clears waivers.

I'm guessing that Hill takes the place of Tyler Sash after he comes back after week 4 or week 5 The Giants can ask for a a one week roster exemption granting them an extra week to decide what to do, like they did last year with Sash after he opened the season serving a 4-game suspension. The thing about that is that Sash's contract is not guaranteed if he's on the opening day 53-man roster. The contracts of players with less than 4 years of accrued experience are not guaranteed salary cap-wise. Players who are likely to be released are players with less than 4 years worth of experience, like Sash (who has two) or Donnell (who has none).

Besides Will Hill and Brandon Collins, the Giants have one player on the Reserve/Retired List--FB Ryan D'Imperio. As Jason Fitzgerald explained to me via twitter, the team maintains his rights, but his salary comes off the books:

The other list that the Giants have players on is the Waived/Injured List. The Giants have 3 players placed on that list. They will all receive or have received Injury Settlements. They are CB Antonio Dennard, WR Kris Adams, and WR Jeremy Horne. Dennard has already received an Injury Settlement from the Giants. The other two are no doubt in the process of getting done. Injury Settlements count against the cap once the Top 51 Rule ceases on September 5th, 3 weeks from today.

Once Hynsoki comes off of the PUP List in week 7, I'm guessing that the Giants cut a WR (Barden), or possibly even a 4th TE like Larry Donnell who I wouldn't be shocked to see make the team at this point. The Giants' coaching staff has been talking him up a lot. As far as Kuhn is concerned, I think his fate and that of Marvin Austin are intertwined. If Austin shows nothing during his time on the active roster, and injuries aren't a factor---which is very likely to be wishful thinking since they almost always are---then I'd say Kuhn takes Austin's roster spot. Either that, or the Giants IR Kuhn, and save them both for next year, when a guy like Shaun Rogers will not likely be on the roster again since he's on a one-year Minimum Salary Benefit (MSB) deal.

Players who I'm giving the benefit of the doubt too who I placed on the roster as of now, but who are still skating on thin ice are DT Marvin Austin and CB Terrell Thomas. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't make it, but I think that, as of now, the Giants will give them a shot. Of course, injuries will make your decisions for you, but so far they haven't been a big problem at Giants' training camp (knock on wood). Other than Antrel Rolle's ankle scare--he should be ready for the regular season opener in Dallas on September 8th--the Giants have been rather fortunate in the injury department.

I wouldn't be shocked to see S Cooper Taylor (5th round pick out of Richmond) be placed on Injured Reserve. He's been on it for a spell now due to a sore hamstring. Victor Cruz spent the whole year on IR in 2012 for that very same reason. This is just a guess from me, but I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case here as well. We can only wait and see. Last year we saw the Giants stash Brandon Mosley on IR. Every year it happens with someone who has in injury that doesn't seem all that serious, but which ultimately eases their transition to that nebulous position on an NFL roster, giving a team a whole year to indoctrinate a player within it's "culture", so to speak, without risking losing him to another club.

I think that the Giants will find a RB on another team's roster after final cuts are made on Saturday, August 31st. RB Da'Rel Scott does NOT look long for this team. Other players, in my opinion, who seem like thy're going to get the axe as of now are:

• RB Ryan Torain
• QB Curtis Painter (in a manufactured backup QB competition w/David Carr)
• Larry Donnell (even though good things have been said about him)
• OG Eric Herman (he seems ticketed to the Practice Squad if he can clear waivers as a 7th round pick)
• DE Adrian Tracy
• DE Justin Trattou
• DT Mike Patterson (this one has me torn because he can still play, but Austin's potential--as opposed to his actual production--seems to take precedence)
• LB Kyle Bosworth (he's been a Special Teams demon so far from all reports)

My guess is that these 8 make the Practice Squad (assuming they're not claimed after being waived):

The Giants have made 3 roster moves since my last guess at the roster on July 30th. FB Ryan D'Imperio, WR Jeremy Horne, and WR Kris Adams are no longer on the 90-man roster from that time. Added to it in their place are WR Julian Talley, WR Marcus Harris, & FB Ben Guidugli. Let's see what happens between now, and a week from today when make my next 53-man roster projection. Hopefully, no injuries will occur that will force the Giants' hands with respect to how thy decide to shape their depth chart.

Here is the Giants' 90-man roster, & the corresponding 2013 salary cap numbers for each player

Here are the players in the Top 51 list:

• These all count against the salary cap at this time since the Top 51 rule is in effect.
• Click on this link below from overthecap.com for the contractual status of most of the Giants' players currently on the roster.
• Contractual status of players on Giants' roster

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Here are players 52 through 90, who currently don't count against the salary cap at the moment (except for their 2013 prorations):

• The players in light blue are Undrafted Rookie Free Agents (UDFAs) that were eligible to be drafted in this past April's draft.
• Currently, the Giants have 5 on their roster (Clement, James, Mertile, Sabino, and Tweedy).
• These 5 players are strong candidates to make it onto the Giants' practice squad if they don't make the opening day 53-man roster.
• Their advantages are that they have low cap numbers, they're young, and they're cost controlled for 4 years (especially the first three).

The Giants have 3 players listed on the waived/injured list so far this training camp

They are as follows:

CB, Antonio Dennard (2013 cap # of $405,000 - waived off of Injured Reserve on July 27th)
WR, Jeremy Horne (2013 cap # of: $480,000 - waived/injured on August 1st)
WR, Kris Adams (2013 cap # of $405,000 - waived injured on August 12th)



Their replacements on the roster were as follows:

• Dennard was the 91st player on the 90-man roster, therefore he didn't have a replacement for his roster spot (the Giants were allowed to carry him since he was injured; they've since reached an injury settlement with him)
• Horne's replacement was WR Julian Talley (cap number of $405,000 - signed on August 1st).
• Adams's replacement was WR Marcus Harris (cap number of $405,000 - signed on August 12th).

You can follow the transactions here:

2013 Transactions - NY Giants - BIGBLUEINTERACTIVE.com

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The Giants are going to reach injury settlements with Horne and Adams pretty soon. They've already done so, as indicated above, with Dennard. Those injury settlements will count against the salary cap once the Top 51 rule ceases 22 days from now, on at midnight NY time on Thursday, September 5th.

Here are some fine articles below in Injury Settlements. I suggest that people read up on them if people are interested in how the process works. It's something that happens every year to each of the 32 teams in the NFL, and counts against the cap once the regular season begins. I HIGHLY recommend the articles below:

• http://www.steelersdepot.com/2012/08/explaining-the-nfl-waived-injured-process/
• http://insidethecap.blogspot.com/2009/09/injury-settlements-for-waived-players.html
• http://russellstreetreport.com/why-nfl-players-and-teams-consider-injury-settlements/
• http://bleacherreport.com/articles/236279-negotiating-an-injury-settlement-by-jack-bechta

How does the potential presence of Terrell Thomas on the 53-man roster this season affect the Giants' salary cap?

This is an important question to ask regarding T2---a player who as of today is listed as a 4th stringer on the Giants' official depth chart (see below):

Normally, a player so low on the depth chart wouldn't have a cap number as high as T2 presently does if he makes the 53-man roster on opening day ($1,450,000). T2 is an interesting case though. He was arguably an elite DB, and the best CB on the team, when he got injured in a preseason game against Chicago 2 years ago in the Meadowlands (click HERE to read a brief article about it). The Giants had big plans for him going into what turned out to be a championship season. The next year he came back only to re-injure himself. He is now trying to become only the second player on NFL history to come back from a third ACL injury (the first being on college), with Thomas Davis of Carolina from last year being the first one to do it.

When the Giants took Thomas off of the PUP list 4 days ago (August 6th) it signaled that the Giants' medical staff feels that Thomas can now show the coaching staff what he can do in practice and during their 4 preseason games before the final cuts are made on August 31st. That gives Thomas 25 days to make what is essentially going to be his last stand as a either a Giant or a player in the NFL. This 3 and a half week long period could very well be his Thermopylae. Check out T2's contractual breakdown here (courtesy of overthecap.com):

Interestingly, Thomas's contract includes a salary split (e.g., his $630,000 being reduced to $358,000, a savings of $272,000) in case he winds up on Injured Reserve again for the third straight year. Check out two articles on the situation below:

• "Giants' Terrell Thomas signs one-year minimum contract with playing-time incentives" - by Jenny Vrentas/The Star-Ledger | February 12, 2013
• "Giants save $1.55 million in Terrell Thomas’ Contract Renegotiation" - by Jason Fitzgerald of overthecap.com | February 12, 2013

Here's the what would happen cap-wise for T2 under the following 3 scenarios:

1. If T2 DOES make the Giants' final 53-man roster, then his cap number for 2013 would be $1,450,000.
2. If T2 DOESN'T make the Giants' final 53-man roster, then his remaining dead money would count against the Giants' cap number for 2013. That amount would be $785,000. As a result, the cap savings for the Giants would be $665,000--a significant sum considering the fact that the Giants are very close to the non Top 51 cap threshold. This makes him vulnerable.
3. If T2 winds up on INJURED RESERVE, then his salary would split. His base salary would be reduced from $630,000 to $358,000. His prorated bonus of $785,000 would still count on the cap though, as would the $35,000 workout bonus. This would bring his cap number in this scenario to a total of $1,178,000. This would save the Giants $272,000 against T2's cap number if he made the 53-man roster.

What is also significant to take note of is that as a potential 5th CB/Safety hybrid, Thomas isn't a Special Teams standout. This is where his competition (Charles James, Trumaine McBride, and Junior Mertile) have an edge on him. This is also in addition to the fact that all of these players have very low cap numbers for the 2013 season--cap numbers which are more in keeping with what a 5th CB should be making on a cap strapped team like the Giants. It must be duly noted that the Giants have worked with Thomas all this time for a reason, and that they would like to get a return on their investment. It is for this reason that one can make the argument that Thomas's spot on the roster for 2013 is there for him to take--unless another injury denies him that opportunity.

Pay attention to Thomas's playing time during preseason, and how coaches talk him up compared to the three young CBs mentioned above (James, McBride, and Mertile). In case Thomas gets hurt, then look out for which one of these 3 young Corners plays best on Special Teams during the remainder of training camp and the preseason to be the player to take Thomas's roster spot. It will certainly bare watching what happens in these next 21 days. Thomas's professional career will likely depend on it.

Suspended players don't count on the opening day 53-man roster

This happened to start the year last year with Tyler Sash when he began the season serving a 4-game suspension due to P.E.D.s ("Adderall" again).

While suspended, Hill's cap number of $480,000 won't count against the Giants' 2013 salary cap. When he's eligible to return from suspension after the 4th game, then the Giants will have to make a decision about releasing a player on the 53-man roster to make room for Hill, or to just flat out place Hill on waivers. If Hill does in fact return after 4 games, then only 13/17ths of his cap number will count on the Giants' salary cap this year. While he's suspended though, as stated above, he does not count against the Giants' cap (the Giants essentially get a cap credit).


NOTE: If teams release players with less than 4 accrued seasons at any point during the regular season, their full cap numbers will NOT count on the Giants' cap. Only the weeks that they played on the team will count (i.e., if a player with 3 accrued seasons like Tyler Sash is released from the 53-man roster to make room for Hill after the 4th game, then only 4/17ths of Sash's salary will count against the cap due to his experience--or more accurately his lack thereof).

This approach to salary cap management in these situations undoubtedly has an impact on personnel moves throughout the league. This is why younger players tend to make rosters over older players (marginal to middling players with more than 4 years of experience), so that if roster moves need to be made in-season the team can save cap room. It is for this reason that if two players of equal ability are on the table for a final discussion to make a roster--one a younger player with 2 accrued years and the other an experienced vet with 5 seasons, than the younger player will always win.

On the other hand, players who are released during the regular season with more than 4 accrued years of experience will have their full cap numbers count against their 2013 salary cap.

Salary Cap update for all 32 teams as of today (August 4th)

As I stated in my previous post, the salary cap updates on the NFLPA's Salary Cap website have been wacky the last week or so to say the least in terms of their updates. I fixed the Giants' cap number, but I'm not so sure about the rest. I wouldn't be surprised if there's an error or two in there somewhere, so please keep that in mind as you look at the numbers for each club.

Additionally, these figures should---I emphasize should---factor in the cap numbers for ALL the draft picks around the league at this point, since the last of the 254 draft picks chosen this past April signed six days ago on July 29th (Chance Warmack of the Tennessee Titans). Without further ado, here are the numbers:

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Here are the cap numbers listed in alphabetical order for the sake of convenience as well:

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Assuming that these numbers are correct, it is interesting to note that players on teams with less than $2 million dollars of cap room (teams ranked 28 through 32) are going to have to make more room under the cap before the Top 51 Rule expires in a little over a month on September 5th. Those five clubs are Chicago, Houston, Washington, Kansas City, & St. Louis.

The Giants may look to make more room themselves by possibly restructuring the contract of Steve Weatherford, which I had speculated about before on this blog. If they were to do so, then they could create an added $738,750 worth of extra cap space to add on to their figure of $2,656,846 that they currently have. That would in turn increase the Giants' overall cap space, making them $3,395,506 under the cap.

Once the Top 51 Rule ends in September 5th, so will a few rules that have to do with cap accounting. At that point, the 53-man roster will have been determined. Teams will have to include the cap numbers of the 52nd and 53rd players on the roster at that point. They will also have to count the players on IR, the Practice Squad, the PUP list, & those who have received Injury Settlements in training camp/preseason as the result of any injuries that prevented them from continuing to play (this is the case for Antonio Dennard & Jeremy Horne at this point).

Any additional Dead Money that results from players being cut in training camp will also factor into this equation. A conservative guess is that this will cost teams between 2 and 3 million dollars around the league depending on their specific situations. This is why late summer cuts, especially to middling veteran players on teams who still need to make cap room---like those 5 mentioned above---should not come as a surprise towards the end of August.

The Giants should be listed as being $2,656,846 under the cap, not the figure that the NFLPA website has up now

The NFLPA website (League Top 51 Cap Report) has the Giants listed as being $2,251,846 under the cap. This is flat out incorrect. Whoever is doing the inputting there counted Ryan Nassib's entire contract in the calculation when this should not be the case. Only the top 51 cap numbers factor into a team's overall salary cap figure. Nassib is ranked 59th on the team now. Click HERE to read about it.

I asked Jason Fitzgerald about this in an e-mail, and he explained to me that only portion of Nassib's deal that should count against the salary cap is his signing bonus proration for the 2013 season, which happens to be $113,400 as per his contractual breakdown from overthecap.com seen below:

Whoever was doing the data entry mistakenly subtracted Nassib's $518,400 cap number for 2013 instead of only his $113,400 signing bonus proration for this coming season. Dovetailing off if this point, I initially broke down the Giants' salary cap situation last Sunday as follows below:

• The Giants will have a different cap number either tomorrow or Tuesday - Sunday, July 28, 2013

I listed the Giants' cap number as being $2,770,246 under the cap last Sunday on account of the Pugh signing, Nassib signing, and release of K David Buehler & subsequent signing of FB Ryan D'Imperio. What I didn't include though was Nassib's signing bonus proration. Even though Nassib's 2013 cap number doesn't rank him in the Giants' top 51 list of cap numbers (he ranks 59th), his signing bonus proration for 2013 still counts towards this year's cap.

The same counts with regard to all players who aren't in a team's top 51 list of 2013 cap numbers. Their 2013 signing bonus prorations still count towards this year's salary cap during the top 51 phase on salary cap accounting that we are presently in (ending on September 5th) even if their base salaries do not.

Add to this that as Jason Fitzgerald & I were corresponding regarding this topic via e-mail that Jason also said that the NFLPA website was messed because these numbers didn't make any sense. I don't want to misquote him, so here's what he wrote me in response to my question about the Giants' salary cap number being off on the NFLPA's Top 51 League Cap Report website:

The NFLPA site is all messed up right now. I dont know if they are
updating the way they do something or if their data entry folks are on
vacation but things are all weird with the calculations. the only portion
for Nassib that should count is his signing bonus proration, but they are
counting the whole deal.

My guess is they will fix it in the next week or two but until then I
would trust whatever numbers you have rather than the cap report numbers.

Jason

This is why the Giants should be correctly listed as being $2,656,846 under the salary cap now instead of the incorrect figure of $2,251,846 listed above.


P.S. If you haven't yet, check out Jason's salary cap website (overthecap.com). It is bar none the absolute best website on the entire web with respect to not only quantitative analysis of the NFL's salary cap, but qualitative analysis as well. If you want to learn about how the salary cap works in the NFL, then go there often. I do everyday, and find something new and interesting all the time.