Here's my 2nd attempt at predicting the Giants' 53-man roster to start the 2013 season as of today

First off, here's my post on this subject from May 28th:
Here's my projected 53-man roster for the Giants at this time, for when the Top 51 rule ceases


Now--back in the present--here's my guess as of today how the opening night 53-man roster will wind up, along with each player's respective cap impact (projected impact in the cases of unsigned draft picks Justin Pugh & Ryan Nassib; 1st rounder Pugh having been selected 19th overall, & 4th rounder Nassib having been selected 110th overall):

I've got the Giants cutting the 3 players in highlighted in orange above (Ramses Barden, Adrian Tracy, and Mike Patterson) once the 3 guys I've got projected to be on the PUP List at the start of the season mentioned below come off it, sometime between weeks 7 & 10.


Here is the positional breakdown, along with the 3 players on the PUP List:

I've got starting FB Henry Hynoski, last year's promising 7th round pick DT Markus Kuhn, & starting DE Jason Pierre-Paul starting the season on this list. I'm 99% sure that Hynoski and Kuhn will start the year on the PUP List. I'm not sure about JPP though, but I know that the Giants like to err on the side of caution with their players (unlike the Eagles), which is why I listed him here, even though it's probably only slightly less than about a 50/50 chance he winds up going on this list based on Willie McGinest's recovery time from this same injury in the past.



Chris Canty started the season on the PUP List last year, which is a somewhat comparable situation. The Giants are notoriously good for keeping outsiders in the dark regarding their players' injury situations though. This, combined with the Giants' propensity to err on the side of caution (unlike the short-sighted Eagles, Redskins, and Cowboys as documented in the past) makes me think that the PUP list makes sense for JPP, even if he doesn't need the full 6 to 9 weeks before playing in an actual game once the regular season starts.





Here's my positional numbers analysis:

• I've got Bear Pascoe highlighted in green above because he'll probably fill in for Hynoski while he's out (which he's done before), while also doubling in his normal role as a TE/H-Back, unless of course the Giants bring in a young and cheap fullback off of someone else's roster to fill in a la Madison Hedgecock in 2007 (forget about Vonta Leach; he's asking for too much, and his agent is using the Giants at this point to get as much money as possible out of the Dolphins).
• I've also got the Giants keeping 3 QBs; It is very likely that that number will go back down to 2 again in the 2014 season, but in 2013 they need Carr (who's a free agent after this season) since Nassib is too green to be Eli's immediate/primary backup.
• RB is normal, as is OL; I wouldn't be surprised though if the Giants keep 8 OL though instead of 9.
• Incidentally, I've got Diehl starting the season as the starting RT until Pugh isn't as wet behind the ears, but that's another story.
• At WR, I've got the Giants carrying 6 players until Barden gets cut after Hynoski comes back; I've also got the Giants dropping a player on the Practice Squad (take your pick which one) because if they do cut Barden, and only go with 5 WRs, they'll want at least 1 WR on the Practice Squad that's familiar with the Giants' complex system, and be ready to play. Brandon Collins fits that description to a tee. Patricia Traina tweeted me back after I asked her what would happen to Brandon Collins to start the season while he's suspended the 1st 4 games games by the NFL saying that h'ed wind up on the Reserve list (a la Tyler Sash to start the season last year, and then Will Hill after him when they both got suspended by the league for using PEDs).
• I don't think going with 5 WRs for most of the season, after starting out with 6 is going to be as big of a problem as I originally thought, since Barden as the 6th WR is almost always inactive on game days due to his inability to play Special Teams.
• The 3 Specialists are a given (the kicker, punter, and Long snapper, and will be on the team).
• The LB situation is interesting; I had the Giants keeping 7 before, but now I've got them keeping 6. This lack of numbers is somewhat mitigated however by rookie DE Damontre Moore's ability to play the Joker position that Kiwi played in the past for the Giants. Moore played it in college, so it should work out smoothly, and actually give them 6 LBs plus a quasi LB counted amongst the ranks of the DEs. The Giants will almost certainly keep at least 1 LB on the Practice Squad because of the lack of numbers on this projected 53-man list.
• Amongst the DEs, I've got Adrian Tracy being cut after JPP comes back; Kiwi will be playing DE full time this year, but his experience in the past playing the Joker position will come in handy if needed, but that role will go to Damontre Moore, as he goes between the D-Line and that Joker position that he played in college and which the Giants employ under DC Perry Fewell.
• The most notable DT that I've got being cut is Marvin Austin. Once 2nd year DT Markus Kuhn comes back off of the PUP list, I've got him replacing Mike Patterson, who I have the Giants cutting, unless one of their other DTs or other players gets hurt first. It wouldn't surprise me if Shaun Rogers gets hurt either, making the Giants' decision for them numbers-wise due to his injury history.
• A lot of the time, these numbers situations get figured out on their own, due to the physical nature of the game; Attrition is a part of the NFL, as much as anything else. The Giants will be happy to have the three guys they've got on the PUP list ready to come back and contribute from that point of view.
• I've got the Giants keeping 5 Safeties now too, instead of 4, which I had them keeping before. Ryan Mundy was talked up by the coaches a lot during OTAs and mini camp; that to go along with the idea that I have listed above regarding the Giants keeping 6 LBs. That doesn't take into account though Damontre Moore's ability to play Kiwi's vacated Joker position, and that the Giants like to use their 3 safety lineup often. Mundy is a guy who seems to be able to slide into that role that Deon Grant owned here in 2010 and in down the stretch in 2011.
• At CB, I've got the Giants keeping the conventional number of 5. If T2 gets hurt again, his salary will split from what I understand, so while I've actually got him making the team, I wouldn't be shocked if rookie UDFA Charles James makes it in his place. James is a guy who might sneak onto the 53-man opening day roster if T2's injury acts up on him and if James can excel playing Special Teams, something T2 doesn't do---and quite frankly may not be able to do considering his extensive injury history of 3 ACL tears (1 in college and 2 in the pros).

Here are the cap calculations:

This cap space number includes the cap numbers for the 3 players who I've got projected as winding up on the PUP List: JPP, Hynoski, & Kuhn. Their cap numbers are as follows:

I'm pretty sure that Kuhn's salary splits on this list, and I think the same apples to the contracts of Shaun Rogers and Terrell Thomas.

Here's my guess for the 8-man Practice Squad to start the season too (these players count against the salary cap; they each earn $6,000 a week for 17 weeks, including the bye week):

• NOTE:
• Once Brandon Collins is eligible to return to the Giants after week 4 off of his league mandated 4-game suspension, as the result of his use of illegal PEDs, he's a guy that seems earmarked for the Practice Squad, especially if the Giants plan on carrying less than 6 WRs at any point in the regular season.
• Collins would have to displace one of these 8 players on the list above though; guys who look to be safe (just my guess here) are Herman, Clement, James, & Sabino.

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• I've got the Giants cutting Ramses Barden, Adrian Tracy, and Mike Patterson when the 3 guys mentioned above on the PUP list are ready to come off it sometime between weeks 7 and 10. Tracy would be cut for JPP, Barden would be cut for Hynoski, and Patterson or maybe even Shaun Rogers would be cut for Kuhn (Rogers wouldn't surprise me at all if he got the axe instead of Patterson, baed on his injury history).
• I also wouldn't be surprised to see Kuhn wind up on IR too after spending time on the PUP list to start the year. If that happens, then Kuhn's salary will split, and the Giants will gain $177,000 in cap space; His cap number will be reduced from being $491,474 to being $314,474.
• Brandon Collins, as noted above, is a guy who makes perfect sense to be added on to the Practice Squad after he completes his stay on the Reserve list for the first 4 weeks of the regular season due to the Giants' potential lack of numbers at the WR position in this hypothetical scenario.
• The most notable cuts include Marvin Austin, Tyler Sash, Eric Herman, Etienne Sabino, Charles James, Ryan Torain, Adewale Ojomo, Justin Trattou, Matt McCants, special teams ace Alonzo Tweedy, & Chase Clement.
• I've got Clement, Herman (as long as he doesn't get picked up by another team), James, Tweedy, McCants, and Sabino--among others winding up on the Practice Squad.

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The additional dead money stemming from some of these cuts ($346,500) added on to the present estimated dead money total that I have now of $6,872,765 is $7,219,265. The extra dead money in this fictional scenario is broken down as follows:

Marvin Austin: $311,509

Eric Herman: $13,988

Tyler Sash: $19,670

Chase Clement: $833

Adewale Ojomo: $500

*The total amount of dead money for 2013 for these 5 players is $346,500 as noted above.

What this realistic hypothetical scenario tells us is this: the Giants are going to need to clear more space under the cap in order to cover regular season operational expenses. The Giants would be $374,655 in the red in this scenario I laid out to start the regular season, which obviously can't happen since teams can't be over the cap. I already posted about possible players who could help the Giants to clear more space under the cap---either voluntarily or involuntarily.

The Practice Squad and the 52nd & 53rd players on the roster count here, when the Top 51 rules ceases. IR is also part of this cap equation. Who knows how that will shape up. The Giants will need to clear somewhere between 1 to 2 million more in cap dollars before the Top 51 Rule ceases 68 days from now at midnight NY time on September 5th.

• With this knowledge in hand, would it be surprising to see a late summer cut to a veteran player who we wouldn't otherwise expect in order to meet this salary cap need? The answer would be no, based on the information outlined and discussed herein.
• A tacked on voidable year to Justin Tuck's contract would also not be out of the question since it would help save money in 2013, and pass on whatever is saved as dead money to 2014 after Tuck leaves via free agency.
• Restructuring of Steve Weatherford's contract could also help the Giants make more room under the cap.
• If the Giants did a simple restructure with Weatherford's deal like they did earlier this offseason with Mathias Kiwanuka, then they could save as much as another $738,750 in cap space this year, with $246,250 being added on to Weatherford's cap number in the last three years of his deal after this season from 2014 through 2016.

A guy that I wouldn't be surprised to see let go, if things work out at S because of the numbers there at present, is Stevie Brown. This is just my opinion, mind you, but Stevie is an UFA after 2013, and his cap number and cap savings are the same: $2,023,000. Cutting him in August would also give the Giants the right amount of additional cap space that they would need to cover regular season operational salary cap expenses. Will it happen? Probably not, but something like this shouldn't come as a surprise considering the Giants' current cap situation (pending any other moves of course).

A restructure to Steve Weatherford's contract, or an extension or restructure to Eli Manning'd contract (next year seems more likely for Eli though for an extension) wouldn't be out of the question to help in the increased cap room department. Keep in mind that the Victor Cruz situation is still ongoing as well. Will his cap number change that much (plus or minus) from his current $2.879 M cap number if he agrees to a new deal with the Giants? This variable will also factor into the Giants' cap equation for 2013.

• I'm going to make another mock 53-man list on the following two approximate dates:
• near the end of July--a couple of days after training camp starts--when things have settled down for clubs.
• and finally at the end of August, between the 75 man cuts and the final 53 man cuts.

List of Giants' cap numbers for all players on the 90-man roster as of today

Here they are:

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Here is how I got the math done to arrive at the Giants' current cap number of $3,308,682:

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Now, here are the cap numbers for the rest of the team that DO NOT currently count against the Giants' salary cap since we're in the Top 51 Rule phase of salary cap calculations. This expires on Thursday, September 5th at midnight EST. after that teams will have to account for the Practice Squads and the 52nd and 53rd men on the 53 man roster, to go along with any players who are on the PUP List or Injured Reserve. Here goes:

PLEASE NOTE: Once Justin Pugh (1st round OT/OG out of Syracuse) and Ryan Nassib (4th round QB also out of Syracuse)--the Giants' only remaining unsigned draft picks sign with the team, their estimated expected cap numbers will be $1,517,436 for the former, and $519,114 for the latter as per 2013 NFL Draft Rookie Contract and Salary Cap Estimates - overthecap.com

Only Pugh's contract will  count against the team's cap while the Top 51 Rule is still in effect. Once it ceases though, Nassib's will count on the cap too since he's virtually guaranteed of making the team, unless something crazy happens. Keep in mind that players who wind up on IR still count on a team's salary cap (this is where salary splits come into play for certain players).

Right now, Nassib and Pugh only count the league minimum of $405,000 (which doesn't qualify them to coutn against the cap yet since they're not on the team's list of their top 51 cap numbers), even though they haven't signed yet. Once they do sign, their cap numbers will change as explained above.

On a side note, CB Antonio Dennard is on the Reserve/Injured List. This explains why the Giants have 91 players listed on the Current Contracts column for the League's Top 51 Cap Report that I frequently refer to and cite here. The Giants are not the only team with more than 90 current contracts. There are eleven other clubs with such an issue (four teams with 92, and seven with 91). The Redskins, Cowboys, Seahawks, and Cardinals all have 92. The seven clubs with 91 current contracts, other than than the Giants, are the Falcons, Panthers, Lions, Colts, Steelers, 49ers, & Rams.

Desmond Bishop signs with the Vikings

As I thought, Bishop has signed with the Vikings earlier this afternoon. Check out this article by Ed Valentine on the subject:
"Desmond Bishop signs with Minnesota Vikings" - by Ed Valentine on Jun 24 2013, 3:15p


Check out this tweet by Ian Rapoport on Bishop's salary:

NFLPA Minimum and corresponding Split Salaries between 2011 and 2020

Here are the Minimum salaries and their corresponding split salaries for the years 2011 all the way through to the end of this latest CBA, in 2020:

• I downloaded this pdf from the NFLPA website, and thought I'd share. Split salaries apply to players who get injured and wind up on IR.
• Splits apply to undrafted and drafted players first or second year players (those drafted specifically in rounds 3-7; players drafted in rounds 1 and 2 get their paragraph 5's guaranteed).
• This also applies to veteran players who are on their last legs, so that the team is protected in case they wind up on IR.
• Players who are oft-injured, and have significant injury histories--like Terrell Thomas, who has a split in case he winds up on IR--have salary splits in their deals in many cases too.
• As I understand it, injured fullback Henry Hynoski DOES NOT have a salary split in his contract, since he is entering his third year.

The wisdom of the selection of Ryan Nassib

Wellington Mara was often quoted saying that "you hope for the best, but prepare for the worst" when it came to various situations that involved the Giants as it related to the business of the NFL. Sentimentality aside, make no mistake about it: in the end, it's just that----a business. The Nassib selection makes more sense than the potential he has to function as trade bait in 2 or 3 years when you take into consideration these factors:

A guy like Ryan Nassib wasn't just drafted to be used as trade bait in 3 years, even if that's what eventually happens (which I think it will). It also serves the purpose of helping to transition away from an established star who may or may not want to renegotiate his deal, or becomes too full of himself with respect to what he think he's worth--not that Eli Manning is those things. In fact, he's the antithesis of such a player (see Brett Favre for the polar opposite of Eli).

Jason touched upon this issue at the end of his overthecap.com podcast today, so I figured I'd use it as a talking point/writing prompt here. Check out what Jason had to say regarding this specific point near the end of his podcast this week. Check out the link HERE at the 50:48 mark

Young Quarterbacks drafted onto teams with established QBs like Eli serve three purposes:

1 - leverage to pressure the established starter into taking less money if the team and the established QB attempt to renegotiate the terms of his contract via an extension, so the veteran QB doesn't have all the negotiating power.

2 - leverage to give you the option to move on from the established star starting QB (e.g., Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay with Brett Favre).

3 -It helps to lower a team's overall cap number, which allows for more spending at other positions, a la the 49ers and Colts now; it's no coincidence that most recent Super Bowl Championship teams didn't have QBs who were making a ton of money yet.

You can't get caught with your pants down in the NFL. Look what happened to the Colts in 2011. They were lucky enough to have not one but two franchise QBs to fall back on as a consolation prize for such a miserable year (Andrew Luck and RG3), after big brother Peyton's neck caused him to miss the season. Not every team that stinks it up is lucky enough to land a guy like Luck, or like Tim Duncan for the Spurs, to make a cross-sports analogy, when San Antonio stunk and subsequently tanked the 1996-1997 season.

On the flip side, you have the Packers who did the prudent thing, and drafted a QB who fell into their laps, in 2005, when they took Aaron Rodgers with the 24th overall pick. Favre, who was 35 and at the end of his prime at the time of the drafting of Rodgers, was a guy who was still playing well, but the value was too good for Green Bay to pass up.

Smart organizations take young Quarterbacks they have a conviction on, especially when their starters are in their 30s. Even Bill Walsh got Steve Young to compete with Joe Montana when Montana was still the best QB in the NFL--the same Joe "God" who many people think is the best QB in the history of the NFL (an opinion I happen to share by the way).

Eli is 32 now, and is in the "wheelhouse" of his prime, to quote Jerry Reese, so the drafting of Nassib isn't quite like the Rodgers/Favre situation; however, it is still very prudent. Eli hasn't missed a game in his career since he started his first game in 2004 (hopefully it stays that way). There is no guarantee that that streak will continue indefinitely. Starters who are entrenched are always a play away from losing that distinction. Look at what the Mo Lewis hit on Drew Bledsoe did for the career of Tom Brady, and the Patriots franchise.

You never know what's around the corner, so it makes perfect sense for the Giants to have done what they did when they woke up on day 3 of the draft, and still saw Ryan Nassib on the board within striking distance for them to obtain. All it cost them was their 6th round pick, a decision I'd wager that they would make 100 times out of 100 if given the chance to do over again considering the circumstances.


P.S. Take a gander over at BigBlueInteractive.com where this issue, and other cap related things are being discussed today.

Cap adjustment reference chart for the 5 variables that factor into the adjusted baseline cap spending limit figure for each team

This stems from a post that I made over at BigBlueInteractive.com, my favorite website (which I have linked to the right by the way) to discuss Giants football:

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Salary Cap adjustments made to each of the 32 teams in the league are UNIQUE to them, thereby resulting in DIFFERENT adjusted cap baselines, as Jason Fitzgerald refers to them here on this Caponomics video on YouTube:

Caponomics 101 video - Cap Adjustments at the 23:57 mark

I discussed this in a post I made 15 days ago on June 8th. Click HERE to read about it.

Official Salary Cap Space for all 32 teams as of June 23, 2013

As of today, the Giants are still $3,308,682 under the cap. Here is where all the rest of the teams in the NFL stand, including the Giants, with respect to their cap space, both dollar-wise and ranking-wise with respect to other teams. They are also listed in alphabetical order for reference purposes further below.

I. Cap space ranking (most cap space to least cap space):

II. Alphabetical order

Source: Top 51 League Cap Report

This is significant to take note since free agents veterans who are still out on the market now (Vonta Leach and Desmond Bishop) can't obviously just sign with whoever they want. The cap rules all in the NFL, so the ability of teams to sign these players is best linked to the cap space available. Keeping that in mind, it makes sense that the team that Leach is most associated with is the Dolphins (who are ranked 7th in cap space in the league with $17,635,103 in cap space to spare).

The Vikings are the team rumored to be the favorite to sign Bishop of the three that are rumored to be in play--the Giants and Chiefs are the others. Minnesota has the most cap space of the three teams in play for Bishop with $7,131,654 in cap dollars to spare, ranking them 17th in the league. Bishop is rumored to favor the Giants, as indicated in the excerpt below from this article: http://sportige.com/nfl-rumors-minnesota-vikings-kansas-city-chiefs-new-york-giants-interested-in-desmond-bishop-06-2013/

According to him, the Giants are the ideal situation, and he’s hoping that their offer is going to be the one that convinces him to finally sign with a team for the 2013 season. At the moment, it looks like the Vikings and the Giants are in the lead for his talents. Minnesota could really have themselves a complete look on defense if they manage to plug the final hole they have with Bishop, while the Giants could make do with a quality linebacker just as much.

We'll see what happens going forward since cap space is at a premium for the Giants. There are 33 days to go until training camp. While things are quiet for the players and coaches now, the front office is going to be busy signing their remaining two unsigned draft picks (Justin Pugh and Ryan Nassib), possibly extend Victor Cruz--on their terms only.

They have until midnight EST on Thursday, September 5th to get further under the cap if necessary (which it will most likely be) since that is when the Top 51 Cap Rule expires. A rule of thumb to keep in mind is this; teams that are less than $5 million under the cap at this time--of which there are currently 10, are probably good to go with respect to entering the regular season with regarding to salary cap operating space, provided that they've signed all their draft picks, particularly their 1st and 2nd draft picks since they displace contracts in this Top 51 phase of salary cap accounting calculations.

While things are quiet now for most who work in and cover/follow the NFL, they aren't for most front office personnel around the league, specifically cap analysts, and even more specifically those who work for teams that need to create more space, of which the Giants are probably one. Here are two decent links to read regarding Kevin Abrams, who used to be the Giants' Salary Cap analyst, and is now their Assistant GM:

• Giants.com's Michael Eisen Talks Numbers with Assistant GM Kevin Abrams ('97) Courtesy of Michael Eisen from Giants.com
• BBI Archived Thread: "Great old article on Reese and job duties of others." | AnishPatel : 4/7/2013 4:09 pm